A final pre-election poll from the University of New Hampshire Survey Center found Democratic candidates leading in New Hampshire’s U.S. Senate and 1st Congressional District races, while the contest for governor stood at a tie.
The survey, released Sunday, showed U.S. Rep. Chris Pappas, D-N.H., ahead of former Sen. John E. Sununu, R-N.H., by 54% to 42%. Pappas’ advantage was four percentage points wider than in the center’s September poll, when he led 50% to 42%.
Former Portsmouth City Councilor Stefany Shaheen, a Democrat, also expanded her lead over Republican businessman Anthony DiLorenzo in the 1st Congressional District race. The poll said Shaheen’s margin grew by nine percentage points, though the published results provided in the survey summary did not include the candidates’ individual percentages.
Governor’s race remains even
The survey found Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Democrat Cinde Warmington tied in the governor’s race. The poll also found that most voters expected Ayotte to win, a separate measure from voters’ stated preferences.
The poll was conducted online among 2,182 New Hampshire residents from Oct. 27 through Oct. 31. Its margin of error was plus or minus 2.1 percentage points. The general election is Tuesday.
- Pappas led Sununu 54% to 42% in the Senate race.
- Shaheen’s lead over DiLorenzo increased by nine points from the prior survey.
- Ayotte and Warmington were tied in the governor’s race.
Senate race and favorability
Pappas’ net favorability rating was negative 6, unchanged from September. Sununu’s net favorability declined from negative 5 to negative 18, with the poll recording larger declines among independent and Democratic voters.
The survey associated the change in Sununu’s favorability with negative campaigning during the final weeks of the race. Pappas’ campaign has sought to connect Sununu with President Donald Trump, while Sununu has tried to distance himself from the president after receiving Trump’s endorsement earlier this year.
The poll also measured voter views of the broader political environment. Its release came as surveys around the country showed Democrats with advantages in several contests and as national analysts discussed the possibility of Democratic gains. The survey summary noted that the president’s party typically loses seats in midterm elections.
