The latest Rasmussen Reports survey shows Gov. Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, leading Democrat Cinde Warmington by 10 percentage points in the race for New Hampshire governor if the election were held today.
key findings from the poll
The telephone and online poll of 970 likely New Hampshire voters was conducted Oct. 20-23 and carries a margin of sampling error of ±3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, Rasmussen said. Field work was conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.
- Ayotte 52%, Warmington 42%, independent John Horsley 2%, undecided 4%
- Ayotte draws 90% of Republican support; Warmington receives 68% of Democratic backing
- Among unaffiliated voters, Ayotte is at 41% and Warmington at 49%
demographics and turnout groups
The poll includes several subgroup breakdowns that highlight differences across age, gender and race. Rasmussen reported a notable gender divide: Ayotte leads men 58% to 40%, while the contest is close among women, 46% to 45% in favor of Ayotte. The firm described the net gender gap as 17 points.
Age cohorts show contrasting patterns. Voters in their 30s favored Ayotte by a wide margin, 68% to 28%, whereas Warmington led among those 65 and older, 54% to 41%. Racial and ethnic splits reported by the poll put Ayotte ahead among white voters, 53% to 41%, while Warmington had stronger support from Hispanics (64% to 33%) and some other minority groups.
The survey also examined partisan crossover: Rasmussen reported that 27% of Democrats would vote for Ayotte in this matchup and 8% of Republicans would support Warmington, signaling some cross-party movement among likely voters.
context
Ayotte, a former U.S. senator who was elected governor two years ago, is seeking reelection. Warmington, a former member of the state Executive Council, is the Democratic nominee. The poll’s figures describe voter preferences at one point in time and reflect respondents classified as likely voters by Rasmussen’s methodology.
Campaigns typically use multiple polls and internal data to guide final weeks of voter contact. Rasmussen’s methodology page and full questionnaire provide additional detail on question wording and weighting.
