New Hampshire Secretary of State David Scanlan is forecasting that approximately 635,000 voters will participate in the Nov. 3 general election, which would set a state record for a midterm election.
The projection would exceed the current record, set in 2022, by about 9,000 votes. Scanlan based the estimate in part on absentee-ballot requests and returns from key precincts across New Hampshire, a method also used by former Secretary of State Bill Gardner.
“The dynamics are very similar out there. We have a competitive U.S. Senate race and a lot of energy from both parties trying to confirm their narrative will carry the day,” Scanlan said.
Scanlan said absentee voting activity is tracking closely with the previous midterm election. In 2022, about 58,000 voters requested and received permission to cast ballots without appearing at polling places on Election Day.
Factors behind the estimate
Scanlan also identified the proposed property-tax measure on the ballot as a factor that could increase participation. Question 2 would limit increases in local school property-tax spending, and Scanlan said the measure is generating activity among supporters and opponents.
- The projected turnout is 635,000 voters.
- The 2022 midterm record was about 9,000 voters lower.
- Absentee-ballot activity is similar to the pattern seen in 2022.
The turnout estimate covers the statewide election, which includes a competitive race for New Hampshire’s open U.S. Senate seat as well as contests for governor, Congress, the Executive Council and the state Legislature. New Hampshire voters will also decide Question 2 and other races and ballot measures appearing on local ballots.
Scanlan’s estimate is a forecast rather than an election result. The final number of voters will be determined after ballots cast at polling places, absentee ballots and other legally counted ballots are included in the official totals.
